More than 30 members of the Energy Transitions Commission (ETC) have written to COP31 President Murat Kurum and President of Negotiations Chris Bowen urging them to place clean electrification and the hard-to-electrify sectors at the centre of the climate summit's outcome. The letter was published alongside a new ETC briefing, Still vital, still possible: How governments and businesses can work together to limit global warming, days before negotiators gather in Türkiye.

Signatories include ETC Commissioners from Arup, Envision, Grantham Research Institute (LSE), Octopus Energy, Rothschild, Schneider Electric, Tata Steel and Vattenfall, alongside other leaders from clean power and utilities, heavy industry, transport and finance.

Two priorities for the COP31 outcome

The signatories ask the Presidency to place two priorities at the centre of the COP31 outcome:

  • Accelerate clean electrification by backing the target of 35% electrification by 2035 and developing country strategies to deliver it.
  • Act on the hard-to-electrify sectors by committing globally to faster decarbonisation of steel, cement, aluminium, chemicals, aviation and shipping, including through carbon prices.

Pushing back on the "out of reach" narrative

According to the ETC, the letter pushes back against a growing discourse suggesting the Paris goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C is out of reach. It argues this narrative risks weakening climate policy and corporate commitments just as clean technologies reach scale.

The ETC states that strong commitments on clean electrification and the hard-to-electrify sectors could relaunch the “ambition loop” of policy, private investment and falling technology costs that followed the Paris Agreement, and which it says already curbed future warming projections from upper bounds of 4°C to 2.6°C.

“Keeping global warming well below 2°C is still vital and still possible,” said Adair Turner, Co-Chair of the Energy Transitions Commission. "Costs of solar, wind, batteries and electric vehicles have fallen faster than forecast 10 years back, reducing the danger of catastrophic global warming above 3°C. But with unchanged policies, we're still on track to about 2.6°C by 2100. To keep well below 2°C, we must turbocharge clean electrification which in many applications will deliver both lower emissions and lower costs. But we must also meet more difficult challenges – reducing the utilisation of existing coal plants; decarbonising heavy industry, shipping and aviation; and radically reducing methane emissions from fossil fuel production and agriculture. In many cases, this will entail accepting some increased costs, but these costs are far less than the cost of unchecked climate change."
"Clean electrification has momentum, like a boulder rolling downhill. We need to clear its path with faster grids and permitting for it to accelerate. Heavy industry, methane, deforestation and removals are like boulders stuck at the foot of the hill, needing carbon prices and finance to push them uphill. Move both and we take almost a degree off future warming with a huge impact: fewer wildfires, floods and failed harvests, and a lower risk of irreversible tipping points," said Jules Kortenhorst, Co-Chair of the Energy Transitions Commission.

What the ETC's new analysis shows

The ETC says global warming will reach 2.6°C by 2100 if no new policy support is offered and technologies are adopted only when they become cost-competitive.

Clean electrification

Clean electrification can deliver the biggest cut to projected warming, to around 2.3°C, according to the analysis. That involves building the new energy system and phasing out the old: electricity's share of final energy rises from 20% to over 50% by 2050, and coal falls to under 5% of power. The ETC states that past forecasts underestimated falling solar and battery costs, so faster electrification could cut bills and emissions. Only early coal retirement carries a clear cost.

Heavy industry, aviation and shipping

Methane and deforestation

A cut of around 45% in annual fossil, agricultural and waste methane emissions by 2050 removes about 0.2°C, according to the analysis. Ending deforestation by 2035 removes a further 0.07°C.

Carbon removals

Returning warming to 1.5°C by 2100 is more costly, requiring over 500 Gt of CO₂ removals this century, costing over $500 billion a year, or about 0.4% of today's global GDP. Today, purchased removals total less than 20 Mt per year.

Combined effect of the five priority areas

The ETC states that projected temperatures will not reach below 2°C without action to decarbonise heavy industry, aviation and shipping, deeply cut methane emissions and end deforestation. Combined, the five priority action areas could reduce warming to around 1.8°C – but this is not cost-free and requires policy support. Exponential growth in carbon removals is required to bring potential warming down to 1.5°C.

About the Energy Transitions Commission

The ETC describes itself as a global coalition of leaders from energy producers, energy-intensive industries, technology providers, finance and environmental NGOs, committed to achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century, in line with the Paris climate objective of limiting global warming to well below 2°C and ideally to 1.5°C. The ETC is hosted by Systemiq Ltd.